UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15 (d) of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): March 2, 2009
CONSECO, INC.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware 001-31792 75-3108137
---------------------- ---------------- --------------
(State or other (Commission (I.R.S. Employer
jurisdiction of File Number) Identification No.)
organization)
11825 North Pennsylvania Street
Carmel, Indiana 46032
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(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)
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Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
[ ] Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act
(17 CFR 230.425)
[ ] Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
[ ] Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
[ ] Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Item 2.02. Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
On March 2, 2009, Conseco Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing: (i) plans to delay the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K until on or before March 17, 2009; and (ii) preliminary financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2008, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial information related to the Company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended December 31, 2008, is also attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference.
The information contained under Item 2.02 in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Item 9.01(d). Financial Statements and Exhibits.
The following materials are furnished as exhibits to this Current Report on Form 8-K:
99.1 Press release dated March 2, 2009 related to preliminary financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2008.
99.2 Preliminary Fourth Quarter 2008 Financial and Operating Results for the period ended December 31, 2008.
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, hereunto duly authorized.
CONSECO, INC.
March 2, 2009
By: /s/ John R. Kline
------------------------
John R. Kline
Senior Vice President and
Chief Accounting Officer
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NEWS
For Release Immediate
Contacts (News Media) Tony Zehnder, Corporate Communications 312.396.7086 (Investors) Scott Galovic, Investor Relations 317.817.3228
Conseco plans delayed 10-K filing; announces preliminary results
Carmel, Ind. March 2, 2009 - Conseco, Inc. (NYSE: CNO) announced today that it plans to delay the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K until on or before March 17, 2009. Conseco said it needs additional time to finalize the analysis and disclosure related to its investment portfolio in light of unprecedented market conditions. The Company has been informed by its independent registered public accounting firm that without additional information and analysis to satisfy the auditors' concerns regarding the Company's liquidity and debt covenant margins (primarily those that could be impacted by a significant amount of additional realized losses in the Company's investment portfolio), their audit opinion will include an explanatory paragraph regarding the Company's ability to continue as a going concern.
If, after considering the additional information to be provided by the Company, it is concluded that there is substantial doubt as to the Company's ability to continue as a going concern, the auditors' report on the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2008 will include an explanatory paragraph to that effect. The inclusion of such a paragraph, unless waived by the lenders, would be a default under Conseco's senior credit facility.
Conseco also indicated that it expects its final, audited financial statements to show compliance, as of December 31, 2008, with all other covenants in its credit agreement including those relating to insurance subsidiary capital, the combined risk-based capital ratio of its insurance subsidiaries, the Company's debt to capital ratio and the Company's interest coverage ratio.
All financial results described in this press release should be considered preliminary and are subject to change to reflect any necessary adjustments that are identified before the Company completes its financial statements and files its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008.
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Conseco (2) March 2, 2009
Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results
Conseco CEO Jim Prieur said, "Our core insurance businesses continued to produce significant operating earnings and substantial cash flow in the fourth quarter, and new business growth, up 16% over the prior year's fourth quarter, continues to be impressive."
Preliminary Fourth Quarter 2008 results:
o Total New Annualized Premium ("NAP") (1): $101.6 million, up 16% from
4Q07 ($100.7 million, excluding Private-Fee-For-Service ("PFFS"), up
12 percent from 4Q07)
o Income before net realized investment losses, discontinued operations
resulting from the transfer of Senior Health Insurance Company of
Pennsylvania ("Senior Health," formerly known as Conseco Senior Health
Insurance Company prior to its name change in October 2008) (the
"Transfer") to an independent trust, corporate interest and taxes
("EBIT") (2): $78.1 million, compared to $64.8 million in 4Q07
o Net operating income before valuation allowance for deferred tax
assets (3): $48.7 million, compared to $27.2 million in 4Q07
o Net operating income before valuation allowance for deferred tax
assets per diluted share: 26 cents, compared to 15 cents in 4Q07
o Net loss applicable to common stock: $406.8 million, compared to $71.5
million in 4Q07 (including $455.5 million of net realized investment
losses, valuation allowance for deferred tax assets and losses related
to discontinued operations in 4Q08 vs. $98.7 million of such losses in
4Q07)
o Net loss per diluted share: $2.20 compared to 38 cents in 4Q07
(including $2.46 of net realized investment losses, valuation
allowance for deferred tax assets and losses related to discontinued
operations in 4Q08 vs. 53 cents of such losses in 4Q07)
Preliminary Full Year 2008 results:
o NAP (1): $432.6 million, up 4% from 2007 ($369.8 million, excluding
PFFS, up 6 percent from 2007)
o EBIT (2): $291.3 million, compared to $184.6 million in 2007
(including $64.4 million related to a litigation settlement and $76.5
million related to an annuity coinsurance transaction in 2007)
o Net operating income before valuation allowance for deferred tax
assets (3): $156.4 million, compared to $73.5 million in 2007
o Net operating income before valuation allowance for deferred tax
assets per diluted share: 85 cents compared to 34 cents in 2007
o Net loss applicable to common stock: $1,081.7 million, compared to
$194.0 million in 2007 (including $1,238.1 million of net realized
investment losses, valuation allowance for deferred tax assets and
losses related to discontinued operations 2008 vs. $253.4 million of
such losses in 2007)
o Net loss per diluted share: $5.86, compared to $1.12 in 2007
(including $6.71 of net realized investment losses, valuation
allowance for deferred tax assets and losses related to discontinued
operations in 2008 vs. $1.46 of such losses in 2007)
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Conseco (3) March 2, 2009
Preliminary Financial Strength at December 31, 2008:
o Book value per common share, excluding accumulated other comprehensive
income (loss) (4), was $18.59, compared to $24.42 at December 31, 2007
o Book value per diluted share, excluding accumulated other
comprehensive income (loss) (4), was $18.59, compared to $24.41 at
December 31, 2007
o Debt-to-total capital ratio, excluding accumulated other comprehensive
income (loss) (4), was 27.9%, compared to 20.9% at December 31, 2007
Preliminary Operating Results
Results by segment for the quarter were as follows ($ in millions, except per
share data):
Three Months Ended
December 31,
------------------------
2008 2007
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EBIT (2):
Bankers Life.................................................................... $ 40.0 $ 58.3
Colonial Penn................................................................... 6.7 (.2)
Conseco Insurance Group......................................................... 31.5 9.6
Corporate Operations, excluding corporate interest expense...................... (.1) (2.9)
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EBIT......................................................................... 78.1 64.8
Corporate interest expense........................................................ (15.2) (19.1)
Gain on extinguishment of debt.................................................... 21.2 -
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Income before net realized investment losses, taxes and
discontinued operations.................................................. 84.1 45.7
Tax expense on period income...................................................... 35.4 18.5
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Income before net realized investment losses, valuation allowance for deferred
tax assets and discontinued operations......................................... 48.7 27.2
Net realized investment losses (excluding the increase in unrealized losses
on those investments transferred to an independent trust and net of
related amortization and taxes and the establishment of a valuation allowance
for deferred tax assets related to such losses)................................. (88.0) (5) (23.8)
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Net income (loss) applicable to common stock before valuation allowance for
deferred tax assets and discontinued operations............................ (39.3) 3.4
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets (excluding the establishment of
a valuation allowance for realized investment losses and discontinued
operations).................................................................. - (68.0)
Discontinued operations....................................................... (367.5) (6.9)
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Net loss applicable to common stock........................................... $(406.8) $(71.5)
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Per diluted share:
Net income before net realized investment losses, valuation allowance
for deferred tax assets and discontinued operations.......................... $ .26 $ .15
Net realized investment losses, net of related amortization and taxes......... (.47) (.13)
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets................................... - (.37)
Discontinued operations....................................................... (1.99) (.03)
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Net loss applicable to common stock........................................... $ (2.20) $ (.38)
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Conseco (4) March 2, 2009
In our Bankers Life segment, pre-tax operating earnings were $40.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to $58.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Results for the fourth quarter of 2008 were primarily affected by lower than expected margins from the PDP and PFFS business assumed through our quota-share agreements with Coventry, and to a lesser extent, the Medicare supplement block.
In our Colonial Penn segment, the pre-tax operating earnings were $6.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to a pre-tax loss of $(.2) million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Results in this segment were negatively impacted by $8.4 million of expenses in the fourth quarter of 2007 related to the introduction of Medicare Advantage products.
In our Conseco Insurance Group segment, pre-tax operating earnings were $31.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to $9.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Significant factors affecting the segment's earnings in these periods included:
o Improved earnings from our specified disease block resulting from a $12 million correction discovered through material control weakness remediation procedures and $5 million from improved margins.
o During the fourth quarter of 2007, we recognized additional amortization expense of $14.8 million to reflect changes in our estimates of future mortality rates on our universal life business, net of planned increases to associated policyholder charges.
The Corporate Operations segment includes our investment advisory subsidiary and corporate expenses.
Net realized investment losses in the fourth quarter of 2008 of $88.0 million (net of related amortization and taxes and the establishment of a valuation allowance for deferred tax assets related to such losses) include $44.8 million of other-than-temporary impairment losses. Such net realized investment losses include a deferred tax valuation allowance of $30.9 million, as it is more likely than not that tax benefits related to investment losses recognized in the fourth quarter of 2008 will not be utilized to offset future taxable income.
Based on our evaluation of the recovery of deferred tax assets, we determined the need to increase the valuation allowance by $350.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, of which $319.1 million related to discontinued operations and $30.9 million related to tax benefits associated with investment losses that will not be utilized to offset future taxable income. We increased the deferred tax valuation allowance by $68 million in the fourth quarter of 2007.
In the fourth quarter of 2008, as previously announced, the Company completed the transfer of Senior Health to an independent trust. As a result of the transfer, the operating results of the long-term care business that was transferred as well as other transaction charges are classified as discontinued operations.
In 2008, significant improvements were made to the actuarial reporting internal control environment that remediated the material control weakness related to the Bankers Life segment and our former Other Business in Run-off segment. Although controls within the Conseco Insurance Group segment were also enhanced, additional system and actuarial process improvements are necessary before the material control weakness can be remediated.
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Conseco (5) March 2, 2009
Sales results
In addition to the sales of proprietary products, Bankers Life, through a
partnership with Coventry, distributes Medicare PDP and PFFS plan through
Bankers career agents.
At Bankers Life (career distribution), total NAP in 4Q08 was $72.8 million, up 25% over 4Q07 (total NAP, excluding PFFS, was $71.9 million, up 18 percent from 4Q07). For the year, Bankers' total NAP was up 4% from 2007 total of $294.4 million.
At Colonial Penn (direct distribution), total NAP was $10.9 million, up 16% over 4Q07 as we continue to benefit from our investment in marketing. For the year, total NAP rose 28% over 2007 total of $42.3 million.
At Conseco Insurance Group (independent distribution), total NAP was $17.9 million, down 9% from 4Q07. For the year, total NAP fell 9% from 2007 total of $78.8 million.
Conference Call
The company will host a conference call to discuss results at 10:00 a.m. Eastern
Standard Time on March 2, 2009. The webcast can be accessed through the
Investors section of the company's website as follows:
http://investor.conseco.com. Listeners should go to the website at least 15
minutes before the event to register and download any necessary audio software.
During the call, we will be referring to a presentation that will be available
Monday morning through the investors section of the company's website.
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Conseco (6) March 2, 2009
(5) Such amount includes a deferred tax valuation allowance of $30.9 million as it is more likely than not that tax benefits related to investment losses recognized in the fourth quarter of 2008 will not be utilized to offset future taxable income.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements. Our statements, trend analyses and other information contained in these materials relative to markets for Conseco's products and trends in Conseco's operations or financial results, as well as other statements, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements typically are identified by the use of terms such as "anticipate," "believe," "plan," "estimate," "expect," "project," "intend," "may," "will," "would," "contemplate," "possible," "attempt," "seek," "should," "could," "goal," "target," "on track," "comfortable with," "optimistic" and similar words, although some forward-looking statements are expressed differently. You should consider statements that contain these words carefully because they describe our expectations, plans, strategies and goals and our beliefs concerning future business conditions, our results of operations, financial position, and our business outlook or they state other "forward-looking" information based on currently available information. Assumptions and other important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements include, among other things: (i) general economic, market and political conditions, including the performance and fluctuations of the financial markets which may affect our ability to raise capital or refinance our existing indebtedness and the cost of doing so; (ii) our ability to generate sufficient liquidity to meet our debt service obligations and other cash needs; (iii) our ability to obtain adequate and timely rate increases on our supplemental health products including our long-term care business; (iv) the receipt of required regulatory approvals for dividend and surplus debenture interest payments from our insurance subsidiaries; (v) mortality, morbidity, the increased cost and usage of health care services, persistency, the adequacy of our previous reserve estimates and other factors which may affect the profitability of our insurance products; (vi) changes in our assumptions related to the cost of policies produced or the value of policies inforce at the Effective Date; (vii) the recoverability of our deferred tax asset and the effect of potential tax rate changes on its value; (viii) changes in accounting principles and the interpretation thereof; (ix) our ability to achieve anticipated expense reductions and levels of operational efficiencies including improvements in claims adjudication and continued automation and rationalization of operating systems; (x) performance and valuation of our investments, including the impact of realized losses (including other-than-temporary impairment charges); (xi) our ability to identify products and markets in which we can compete effectively against competitors with greater market share, higher ratings, greater financial resources and stronger brand recognition; (xii) the ultimate outcome of lawsuits filed against us and other legal and regulatory proceedings to which we are subject; (xiii) our ability to remediate the material weakness in internal controls over the actuarial reporting process that we identified at year-end 2006 and to maintain effective controls over financial reporting; (xiv) our ability to continue to recruit and retain productive agents and distribution partners and customer response to new products, distribution channels and marketing initiatives; (xv) our ability to achieve eventual upgrades of the financial strength ratings of Conseco and our insurance company subsidiaries as well as the potential impact of rating downgrades on our business; (xvi) the risk factors or uncertainties listed from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission; (xvii) our ability to continue to satisfy the financial ratio and balance requirements and other covenants of our debt agreements; (xviii) regulatory changes or actions, including those relating to regulation of the financial affairs of our insurance companies, such as the payment of dividends to us, regulation of financial services affecting (among other things) bank sales and underwriting of insurance products, regulation of the sale, underwriting and pricing of products, and health care regulation affecting health insurance products; and (xix) changes in the Federal income tax laws and regulations which may affect or eliminate the relative tax advantages of some of our products. Other factors and assumptions not identified above are also relevant to the forward-looking statements, and if they prove incorrect, could also cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to us are expressly qualified in their entirety by the foregoing cautionary statement. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date made. We assume no obligation to update or to publicly announce the results of any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, future events or developments, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting the forward-looking statements.
- Tables Follow -
Conseco (7) March 2, 2009
CONSECO, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
PRELIMINARY OPERATING RESULTS
Results by segment for the year ended were as follows ($ in millions):
Year Ended
December 31,
---------------------
2008 2007
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EBIT (2), excluding costs related to a litigation settlement and loss related to
a coinsurance transaction:
Bankers Life............................................................................. $ 171.5 $ 241.8
Colonial Penn............................................................................ 25.2 18.1
Conseco Insurance Group.................................................................. 121.3 82.4
Corporate Operations, excluding corporate interest expense............................... (26.7) (16.8)
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EBIT, excluding costs related to a litigation settlement and a loss related to
an annuity coinsurance transaction................................................... 291.3 325.5
Costs related to a litigation settlement................................................... - (64.4)
Loss related to an annuity coinsurance transaction......................................... - (76.5)
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Total EBIT............................................................................. 291.3 184.6
Corporate interest expense................................................................ (59.2) (72.3)
Gain on extinguishment of debt............................................................ 21.2 -
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Income before net realized investment losses, taxes and discontinued operations...... 253.3 112.3
Tax expense on period income............................................................... 96.9 38.8
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Income before net realized investment losses, valuation allowance for deferred tax assets
and discontinued operations............................................................. 156.4 73.5
Preferred stock dividends:
5.50% Class B mandatorily convertible preferred stock................................... - (14.1)
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Net income before net realized investment losses, valuation allowance for deferred tax
assets and discontinued operations.................................................. 156.4 59.4
Net realized investment losses (excluding the increase in unrealized losses on
those investments transferred to an independent trust and net of related
amortization and taxes and the establishment of a valuation allowance for
deferred tax assets related to such losses)............................................. (217.4) (1) (79.5)
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Net loss applicable to common stock before valuation allowance for deferred
tax assets and discontinued operations.................................................. (61.0) (20.1)
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets (excluding the establishment of a
valuation allowance for realized investment losses and discontinued operations)......... (298.0) (68.0)
Discontinued operations.................................................................... (722.7) (105.9)
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Net loss applicable to common stock................................................... $(1,081.7) $(194.0)
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Per diluted share:
Net income before net realized investment losses, valuation allowance for deferred
tax assets and discontinued operations................................................ $ .85 $ .34
Net realized investment losses, net of related amortization and taxes................... (1.18) (.46)
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets............................................. (1.61) (.39)
Discontinued operations................................................................. (3.92) (.61)
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Net loss applicable to common stock................................................... $(5.86) $(1.12)
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(1) Such amount includes a deferred tax valuation allowance of $60.9 million as
it is more likely than not that tax benefits related to investment losses
recognized in the third and fourth quarters of 2008 will not be utilized to
offset future taxable income.
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Conseco (8) March 2, 2009
CONSECO, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
COLLECTED PREMIUMS
(Dollars in millions)
Three months ended
December 31,
---------------------
2008 2007
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Bankers Life segment:
Annuity............................................................................... $411.2 $221.9
Supplemental health................................................................... 502.0 420.4
Life.................................................................................. 55.7 50.7
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Total collected premiums.............................................................. $968.9 $693.0
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Conseco Insurance Group segment:
Annuity............................................................................... $ 23.7 $ 58.0
Supplemental health................................................................... 158.6 156.5
Life.................................................................................. 63.2 68.8
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Total collected premiums.............................................................. $245.5 $283.3
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Colonial Penn segment:
Life.................................................................................. $ 43.8 $ 31.7
Supplemental health................................................................... 2.1 2.5
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Total collected premiums.............................................................. $ 45.9 $ 34.2
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BENEFIT RATIOS ON MAJOR SUPPLEMENTAL HEALTH LINES OF BUSINESS
Three Months Ended
December 31,
----------------------
2008 2007
---- ----
Bankers Life segment:
Medicare Supplement:
Earned premium........................................................................ $160 million $159 million
Benefit ratio(a)...................................................................... 74.7% 67.6%
PDP and PFFS:
Earned premium........................................................................ $154 million $90 million
Benefit ratio(a)...................................................................... 100.8% 83.6%
Long-Term Care:
Earned premium........................................................................ $156 million $156 million
Benefit ratio(a)...................................................................... 102.2% 103.3%
Interest-adjusted benefit ratio (a non-GAAP measure)(b)............................... 67.4% 71.2%
Conseco Insurance Group (CIG) segment:
Medicare Supplement:
Earned premium........................................................................ $49 million $55 million
Benefit ratio(a)...................................................................... 62.8% 66.0%
Specified Disease:
Earned premium........................................................................ $94 million $89 million
Benefit ratio(a)...................................................................... 63.8% 80.6%
Interest-adjusted benefit ratio (a non-GAAP measure)(b)............................... 30.1% 46.5%
Long-Term Care:
Earned premium........................................................................ $9 million $10 million
Benefit ratio(a)...................................................................... 216.9% 150.5%
Interest-adjusted benefit ratio (a non-GAAP measure)(b)............................... 137.4% 89.3%
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(a) The benefit ratio is calculated by dividing the related product's insurance
policy benefits by insurance policy income.
(b) The interest-adjusted benefit ratio (a non-GAAP measure) is calculated by
dividing the product's insurance policy benefits less interest income on
the accumulated assets backing the insurance liabilities by insurance
policy income. Interest income is an important factor in measuring the
performance of longer duration health products. The net cash flows
generally cause an accumulation of amounts in the early years of a policy
(accounted for as reserve increases), which will be paid out as benefits in
later policy years (accounted for as reserve decreases). Accordingly, as
the policies age, the benefit ratio will typically increase, but the
increase in the change in reserve will be partially offset by interest
income earned on the accumulated assets. The interest-adjusted benefit
ratio reflects the interest income offset. Since interest income is an
important factor in measuring the performance of these products, management
believes a benefit ratio, which includes the effect of interest income, is
useful in analyzing product performance. Additional information concerning
this non-GAAP measure is included in our periodic filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission that are available in the "Investor -
SEC Filings" section of Conseco's website, www.conseco.com.
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- # # # # -
Preliminary View of
Fourth Quarter 2008
Financial and Operating Results
Conseco, Inc.
Forward-Looking Statements
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements.
Our statements, trend analyses and other information contained in these
materials
relative to markets for Consecos products and trends in Consecos operations or financial results, as well as other statements, contain
forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws and the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. Forward-
looking statements typically are identified by the use of terms such as anticipate, believe, plan, estimate, expect, project, intend, may,
will, would, contemplate, possible, attempt, seek, should, could, goal, target, on track, comfortable with, optimistic
and similar
words, although some forward-looking statements are expressed differently. You should consider statements that contain these words carefully
because they describe our expectations, plans, strategies and goals and our beliefs concerning future
business conditions, our results of operations,
financial position, and our business outlook or they state other forward-looking information based on currently available information. Assumptions
and other important factors that
could cause our actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements include,
among other things: (i) general economic, market and political conditions, including the performance and fluctuations of the financial
markets which
may affect our ability to raise capital or refinance our existing indebtedness and the cost of doing so; (ii) our ability to generate sufficient liquidity to
meet our debt service obligations and other cash needs; (iii) our ability to
obtain adequate and timely rate increases on our supplemental health
products including our long-term care business; (iv) the receipt of required regulatory approvals for dividend and surplus debenture interest
payments from our insurance subsidiaries;
(v) mortality, morbidity, the increased cost and usage of health care services, persistency, the adequacy
of our previous reserve estimates and other factors which may affect the profitability of our insurance products; (vi) changes in our assumptions
related
to the cost of policies produced or the value of policies inforce at the Effective Date; (vii) the recoverability of our deferred tax asset and the
effect of potential tax rate changes on its value; (viii) changes in accounting principles and the interpretation
thereof; (ix) our ability to achieve
anticipated expense reductions and levels of operational efficiencies including improvements in claims adjudication and continued automation and
rationalization of operating systems; (x) performance and valuation
of our investments, including the impact of realized losses (including other-than-
temporary impairment charges); (xi) our ability to identify products and markets in which we can compete effectively against competitors with greater
market share, higher
ratings, greater financial resources and stronger brand recognition; (xii) the ultimate outcome of lawsuits filed against us and
other legal and regulatory proceedings to which we are subject; (xiii) our ability to remediate the material weakness in internal
controls over the
actuarial reporting process that we identified at year-end 2006 and to maintain effective controls over financial reporting; (xiv) our ability to continue
to recruit and retain productive agents and distribution partners and customer
response to new products, distribution channels and marketing
initiatives; (xv) our ability to achieve eventual upgrades of the financial strength ratings of Conseco and our insurance company subsidiaries as well
as the potential impact of rating downgrades
on our business; (xvi) the risk factors or uncertainties listed from time to time in our filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission; (xvii) our ability to continue to satisfy the financial ratio and balance requirements and other covenants of our
debt agreements; (xviii) regulatory changes or actions, including those relating to regulation of the financial affairs of our insurance companies, such
as the payment of dividends to us, regulation of financial services affecting (among other
things) bank sales and underwriting of insurance products,
regulation of the sale, underwriting and pricing of products, and health care regulation affecting health insurance products; and (xix) changes in the
Federal income tax laws and regulations
which may affect or eliminate the relative tax advantages of some of our products. Other factors and
assumptions not identified above are also relevant to the forward-looking statements, and if they
prove incorrect, could also cause actual results to
differ materially from those projected. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to us are expressly qualified in their entirety by the
foregoing cautionary statement. Our
forward-looking statements speak only as of the date made. We assume no obligation to update or to publicly
announce the results of any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, future events or developments, changes
in
assumptions or changes in other factors affecting the forward-looking statements.
Non-GAAP Measures
This presentation contains the following financial measures that differ from the comparable measures
under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP): operating earnings measures; book value
excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) per diluted share; operating return measures;
earnings before net realized investment gains (losses) and corporate interest and taxes; debt to capital
ratios, excluding accumulated other comprehensive
income (loss); and interest-adjusted benefit ratios.
Reconciliations between those non-GAAP measures and the comparable GAAP measures are included
in the Appendix, or on the page such measure is presented.
While management believes these measures are useful to enhance understanding and comparability of
our financial results, these non-GAAP measures should not be considered substitutes for the most
directly
comparable GAAP measures.
Additional information concerning non-GAAP measures is included in our periodic filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission that are available in the Investor SEC Filings section
of
Consecos website, www.conseco.com.
Preliminary Results
All financial results described herein should be considered preliminary and are subject to change to
reflect any necessary adjustments that are identified before the Company completes its financial
statements
and files its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008.
CNO
Going Concern Discussion
Form 10-K filing delayed until on or before March 17, 2009.
Finalizing the analysis and disclosure related to investment portfolio
Auditors concerns regarding liquidity and debt covenant margins
(primarily those that could be impacted by a significant amount of
additional realized losses in the Companys investment portfolio). Unless
auditors are satisfied with additional information being provided by the
Company, the audit opinion will include an explanatory paragraph
regarding the Companys ability to continue as a going concern.
Material Control Weakness
Q4 2008
Preliminary Financial Summary
CNO
Continued profitability in all three insurance segments, with
total Q4 2008 EBIT of $78.1 million
$101.6 million quarterly sales for CNO, up 16% over Q4 2007
Bankers sales up 25%
Colonial Penn sales up 16%
CIG sales down 9%
Separation of Senior Health* occurred in Q4 2008
Capital management initiatives
Section 382 shareholder rights plan announced in January
2009
*Senior Health Insurance Company of Pennsylvania, formerly known as Conseco Senior Health Insurance
Company prior to its name change in October 2008.
Q4 2008
Preliminary Financial Summary
CNO
Investment portfolio earned yields meeting expectations
Net realized investment losses of $88.0 million (including
impairment losses of $44.8 million), consistent with Q3 2008
results, industry trends and market conditions
Accumulated other comprehensive loss increased from $1.1
billion at 9/30/08 to $1.8 billion at 12/31/08, primarily driven by
wider credit spreads, consistent with market conditions
Company expects final audited financial statements to show
compliance, as of 12/31/08, with all financial ratio and balance
covenants of bank facility
Why CNO is Different
Not ratings-sensitive
Virtually no variable business
Focus on protection products
Small average policy sizes
No significant investments in exotic securities
No dynamic hedging
Collected Premiums
CNO
Strong, consistent
growth in Bankers
and Colonial Penn
Slight decline in CIG
due to focus on
more profitable
business
BLC
Q4 2007
$4,045.0
Q1 2008
$4,056.4
($ millions)
CP
CIG
Collected Premiums-Trailing 4 Quarters
Q2 2008
$4,167.3
Q3 2008
$4,275.1
Q4 2008
$4,524.9
Bankers Life
Colonial Penn
Conseco Insurance Group
Corporate operations, interest expense
and gain on extinguishment of debt
Income before net realized investment losses*
Net realized investment losses
Discontinued operations
Total
Q4 2008
Preliminary Summary of Results
CNO
$40.0
6.7
31.5
5.9
84.1
(88.0)
(369.6)
$(373.5)
Pre-Tax
After Tax
EPS
($ millions, except per share amounts)
$48.7
(88.0)
(367.5)
$(406.8)
$0.26
(0.47)
(1.99)
$(2.20)
*Management believes that an analysis of earnings before net realized investment gains (losses) (including losses
related to the transfer of Senior Health to an independent trust now included in Discontinued Operations) and taxes (a
non-GAAP financial measure) provides an alternative measure of the operating results of the company because it
excludes net realized gains (losses) that are unrelated to the companys underlying fundamentals. The table above
provides a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP measure.
**See Appendix for a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP measure.
**
Q4 Preliminary Earnings
CNO Consolidated
*Management believes that an analysis of earnings before net realized investment gains (losses) (including losses
related to the transfer of Senior Health to an independent trust now included in discontinued
Operations) and
corporate interest and taxes (EBIT, a non-GAAP financial measure) provides an alternative measure to compare
the operating results of the company quarter-over-quarter because it excludes: (1) corporate interest expense; and
(2) net realized gains (losses) that are unrelated to the companys underlying fundamentals. The table above
provides a reconciliation of EBIT to net income applicable to common stock.
($ millions)
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Bankers Life
$58.3
$29.1
$34.6
$67.8
$40.0
Colonial Penn
(0.2)
3.7
8.3
6.5
6.7
Conseco Insurance Group
9.6
23.3
32.3
34.2
31.5
Corporate operations, excluding interest expense
(2.9)
(6.7)
(16.2)
(3.7)
(0.1)
Total EBIT*
64.8
49.4
59.0
104.8
78.1
Corporate interest expense
(19.1)
(16.4)
(13.9)
(13.7)
(15.2)
Gain on extinguishment of debt
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
21.2
Income (loss) before net realized investment losses, taxes
and discontinued operations
45.7
33.0
45.1
91.1
84.1
Tax expense on period income
18.5
11.5
18.5
31.5
35.4
Net operating income (loss)
27.2
21.5
26.6
59.6
48.7
Net realized investment losses (excluding the increase in unrealized
losses on those investments transferred to an independent
trust and net of related amortization and taxes and the establish-
ment of a valuation allowance for deferred tax assets related to
such losses)
(23.8)
(27.8)
(17.4)
(84.2)
(88.0)
Net income (loss) applicable to common stock before valuation
allowance for deferred tax assets and discontinued operations
3.4
(6.3)
9.2
(24.6)
(39.3)
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets
(68.0)
0.0
(298.0)
0.0
0.0
Discontinued operations
(6.9)
0.5
(198.3)
(157.4)
(367.5)
Net loss applicable to common stock
($71.5)
($5.8)
($487.1)
($182.0)
($406.8)
Preliminary Operating ROE
CNO
Operating ROE*, Trailing 4 Quarters
Operating ROE (Before Annuity Coinsurance Transaction)**,
Trailing 4 Quarters
*Operating return excludes net realized
investment gains (losses), valuation allowance
related to deferred tax assets and losses related
to the transfer of Senior Health to an
independent trust. Equity
excludes
accumulated other comprehensive income
(loss) and the value of net operating loss
carryforwards, and assumes conversion of
preferred stock. See Appendix for
corresponding GAAP measure.
**Operating return, as calculated and defined on the left side
of this page, but before a Q3 2007 charge related to an
annuity coinsurance transaction. See Appendix for
corresponding GAAP
measure.
Preliminary Operating EPS* (Diluted)
CNO
*Operating earnings per share exclude net realized investment gains (losses), valuation allowance related to
deferred tax assets and losses related to the transfer of Senior Health to an independent trust.
See Appendix
for corresponding GAAP measure.
Corporate liquidity
Available holding and non-life company liquidity of $59 million at 12/31/08
$108 million of liquidity at 2/27/09
Repurchased $37 million of our convertible debentures during October
2008 for $16 million, resulting in $21 million gain
Drew down $75 million on revolver during October 2008, which confirmed
the availability of these funds; repaid $20 million in December 2008
Sources of and uses of funds, excluding insurance subsidiary dividends
Liquidity
CNO
($ millions)
Sources:
Interest on Surplus Debentures
Net Fees for Services Provided Under Intercompany Agreements
Uses:
Interest Expense on Corporate Debt
Operating Expenses
Net Impact
2007
$69.9
92.9
(72.3)
(42.4)
$48.1
2008
$56.4
83.2
(59.2)
(43.5)
$36.9
CNO
($ millions)
Liquidity: Q4 2008 Actual
$138
$20
$15
$12
$7
$46
$25
$50
$12
$59
Beginning
Liquidity
Balance
Ending
Liquidity
Balance
2009 Liquidity Projection
CNO
*Subject to regulatory approval. Dividend payments of $25 million and Surplus Debenture Interest of $21
million are pending regulatory approval.
($ millions)
$59.0
60.0
44.9
53.0
37.4
195.3
54.6
55.0
10.2
25.0
34.1
178.9
$75.4
Cash Balance 12/31/08
Sources
Dividends*
Surplus Debenture Interest*
Management and Investment Fees
Intercompany Loans and Other
Total Sources
Uses
Interest
Debt Repayments:
Revolver
Senior Credit Facility
Senior Health Notes
Holding Company Expenses
Total Uses
Cash Balance 12/31/09
Company expects final
audited statements to
show compliance, as of
12/31/08, with all
financial ratio and
balance covenants of
bank facility
Key Debt Covenants
CNO
Q4 2008
($ millions)
Q4 2007
30.0%
21.0%
2.00X
3.34X
$1,270
$1,497
250%
296%
30.0%
27.9%
2.00X
2.34X
$1,270
$1,381
250%
258%
Debt/Capital Ratio*
Covenant Maximum
Actual
Interest Coverage
Covenant Minimum
Actual
Statutory Capital
Covenant Minimum
Actual
RBC Ratio
Covenant Minimum
Actual
*Excludes Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
Q3 2008
30.0%
23.6%
2.00X
2.64X
$1,270
$1,433
250%
257%
Consolidated RBC Ratio*
CNO
Q4 2008 positive impacts:
Senior Health separation
Q4 statutory operating results
Permitted practices
Capital management actions
Q4 2008 negative impacts:
Mortgage Experience Adjustment
Factor
Net realized losses
Investment downgrades
*Risk-Based Capital (RBC) requirements provide a tool for insurance regulators to determine the levels of
statutory capital and surplus an insurer must maintain in relation to its insurance and investment risks. The
RBC ratio is the ratio of the statutory consolidated adjusted capital of our insurance subsidiaries to RBC.
Consolidated RBC Ratio
Q4 2008 Changes
CNO
Beginning
RBC
Ending
RBC
257%
258%
18%
15%
11%
8%
23%
19%
9%
Capital Management Actions
Bankers LTC New Business Reinsurance
Benefits
Improve capital and product risk mix
Develop partnership with reinsurer
Transaction Terms
Reinsurer: Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Reinsure 2008, 2009 and future new business
Traditional coinsurance; quota share is 70% for 2008 and 50% for 2009+
Coventry Agreement
Exited reinsurance of Coventry group contracts non-core business
Improves RBC going forward
Other Reinsurance
Series of small external and internal arrangements effects on following
page
Permitted Practice Approvals
CNO
Capital Management Actions:
Statutory Financial Impact
CNO
($ millions)
$6.8
N/A
$24.4
$61.9
Bankers - LTC Reinsurance
Bankers Coventry Group Exit
Other Reinsurance and Capital Actions
Permitted Practices
+1.5%
N/A
+10.8%
+11.0%
$6.8
$(0.3)
$(20.7)
N/A
Consolidated
RBC Impact
+1.5%
+7.8%
+3.2%
N/A
2008
Consolidated
TAC Impact
Consolidated
RBC Impact
Consolidated
TAC Impact
2009
Capital Management Actions:
2009 GAAP Impact
CNO
($ millions, except per share amounts)
Pre-Tax
$(3.0)
$(7.5)
$(3.7)
Bankers - LTC Reinsurance
Bankers Coventry Group Exit
Other Reinsurance and Capital Actions
After Tax
$(2.0)
$(4.9)
$(2.4)
Per Share
$(0.01)
$(0.03)
$(0.01)
GAAP Operating Income
Earnings were $40.0 million, vs. $67.8 million in Q3 2008
Q4 2008 earnings affected by:
Lower than expected PFFS/PDP margins
Lower margins in Med Supp
FAS 133 and COLI volatility
Med Supp and LTC reinsurance transaction
Continued stabilization in LTC margins
Strong Q4 2008 sales
Q4 Summary
Bankers
NAP Results
Quarterly NAP up 18% vs Q4
2007 (up 25% including PFFS)
Strong sales of annuities (+84%)
and Med Supp (+21%), partially
offset by lower life (-13%) and
LTC (-27%) sales
Bankers
($ millions)
Quarterly NAP-Excluding PFFS
NAP-Quarterly*: $58.3 $114.6 $53.4 $65.8 $72.8
PFFS NAP-Quarterly*: $(2.6) $59.0 $(6.4) $4.6 $0.9
Non-PFFS NAP-Quarterly: $60.9 $55.6 $59.8 $61.2 $71.9
*Excludes group business not sold by Bankers agents.
Q4 Earnings
Bankers
Management believes that an analysis of income (loss) before net realized investment gains (losses), net of
related amortization (a non-GAAP financial measure), is important to evaluate the financial performance
of our
business, and is a measure commonly used in the life insurance industry. Management uses this measure to
evaluate performance because realized gains or losses can be affected by events that are unrelated to a
companys underlying
fundamentals. The table on Page 10 reconciles the non-GAAP measure to the
corresponding GAAP measure. See Appendix for a reconciliation of the return on equity measure to the
corresponding GAAP measure.
Trailing 4 Quarter Operating Return on Equity: 7.1%
($ millions)
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Insurance policy income
$470.4
$497.0
$543.4
$537.7
$531.8
Net investment income
132.1
129.3
135.2
138.3
155.4
Fee revenue and other income
4.3
1.6
2.1
3.1
4.2
Total revenues
606.8
627.9
680.7
679.1
691.4
Insurance policy benefits
394.9
434.9
497.2
470.3
477.5
Amounts added to policyholder account balances
43.5
44.8
37.2
46.2
82.3
Amortization related to operations
65.0
75.0
66.6
53.5
39.7
Other operating costs and expenses
45.1
44.1
45.1
41.3
51.9
Total benefits and expenses
548.5
598.8
646.1
611.3
651.4
Income before net realized investment gains (losses),
net of related amortization and income taxes
$58.3
$29.1
$34.6
$67.8
$40.0
Q4 2008 NAP of $11 million, 16% above Q4 2007
2008 YTD NAP of $54.4 million, up 28% over prior year
Q4 2008 earnings were $6.7 million, compared to $(0.2)
million in Q4 2007
Lower expenses from discontinued PFFS pilot program
Q4 2007 recapture of reinsurance treaty
Organic growth from sales initiatives
Q4 Summary
Colonial Penn
Q4 Earnings
Colonial Penn
Management believes that an analysis of income (loss) before net realized investment gains (losses), net of
related amortization (a non-GAAP financial measure), is important to evaluate the financial performance
of our
business, and is a measure commonly used in the life insurance industry. Management uses this measure to
evaluate performance because realized gains or losses can be affected by events that are unrelated to a
companys underlying
fundamentals. The table on Page 10 reconciles the non-GAAP measure to the
corresponding GAAP measure. See Appendix for a reconciliation of the return on equity measure to the
corresponding GAAP measure.
Trailing 4 Quarter Operating Return on Equity: 12.4%
($ millions)
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Insurance policy income
$34.6
$44.4
$47.5
$46.4
$46.5
Net investment income
9.5
9.2
10.1
10.1
10.2
Fee revenue and other income
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
Total revenues
44.3
53.9
58.1
57.0
57.2
Insurance policy benefits
25.2
35.0
35.5
33.9
33.8
Amounts added to policyholder account balances
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Amortization related to operations
5.5
7.4
7.4
9.2
8.0
Other operating costs and expenses
13.5
7.5
6.6
7.1
8.4
Total benefits and expenses
44.5
50.2
49.8
50.5
50.5
Income (loss) before net realized investment
gains (losses) and income taxes, net of
related amortization
($0.2)
$3.7
$8.3
$6.5
$6.7
Q4 2008 NAP $18 million,
9% below Q4 2007
CIG
($ millions)
Sales gains in specified disease, up 6%
from Q4 2007
Decreases in high face-amount life and
annuity products, consistent with CIGs
re-focus
Q4 2008 earnings down 8% vs Q3 2008:
Unlocking adjustment of $7.0 million on the interest-sensitive life block
Lower LTC closed block margins ($4.4 million)
Partially offset by:
Higher specified disease margins due to a deferred ROP adjustment
Higher Medicare supplement margins
Q4 2008 earnings up 228% vs Q4 2007:
Higher specified disease margins and lower amortization
The unlocking adjustment was significantly less in Q4 2008
Partially offset by lower LTC closed block margins
Continuing to make changes to non-guaranteed elements of older life
insurance policies issued by Consecos predecessor companies
Q4 Summary
CIG
Q4 Earnings
CIG
Management believes that an analysis of income (loss) before net realized investment gains (losses), net of
related amortization (a non-GAAP financial measure), is important to evaluate the financial performance
of our
business, and is a measure commonly used in the life insurance industry. Management uses this measure to
evaluate performance because realized gains or losses can be affected by events that are unrelated to a
companys underlying
fundamentals. The table on Page 10 reconciles the non-GAAP measure to the
corresponding GAAP measure. See Appendix for a reconciliation of the return on equity measure to the
corresponding GAAP measure.
Trailing 4 Quarter Operating Return on Equity: 3.7%
($ millions)
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Insurance policy income
$242.6
$243.7
$239.1
$237.7
$238.4
Net investment income
137.7
136.1
138.7
134.0
143.7
Fee revenue and other income
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.1
0.3
Total revenues
380.6
380.6
378.3
371.8
382.4
Insurance policy benefits
195.1
209.1
208.6
203.6
199.6
Amounts added to policyholder account balances
47.7
43.6
37.1
42.7
38.4
Amortization related to operations
51.2
30.2
31.2
24.9
36.3
Interest expense on investment borrowings
6.1
5.8
5.5
5.6
5.5
Gain on reinsurance recapture
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.8)
0.0
Other operating costs and expenses
70.9
68.6
63.6
61.6
71.1
Total benefits and expenses
371.0
357.3
346.0
337.6
350.9
Income before net realized investment gains (losses),
net of related amortization and income taxes, excluding
costs related to the litigation settlement and the loss
related to an annuity coinsurance transaction
$9.6
$23.3
$32.3
$34.2
$31.5
Q4 2008
Net Realized Losses
CNO
Net losses on sales
Losses due to recognition of other-than-temporary impairments
Subtotal before amortization adjustment
Amortization adjustment to DAC and PVP
Net realized investment losses
$(48.1)
(44.9)
(93.0)
5.0
$(88.0)
($ millions)
Investment Quality:
Fixed Maturities*
CNO
Investment grade securities
represent 92% of total
portfolio*
Limited new money allocation
to below-investment grade
securities
Increase in below-investment
grade ratio driven by credit
cycle/ratings migration
Actively Managed Fixed Maturities by Rating at
12/31/08 (Market Value)
12/31/08
92%
9/30/08
93%
6/30/08
93%
3/31/07
93%
12/31/07
92%
% of Bonds which are Investment Grade:
*Includes investments from a variable interest entity which we consolidate under GAAP (though the related
liabilities are non-recourse to Conseco).
Subprime allocation substantially
reduced
HEL allocation reflects market
stresses
Overall mark-to-market and
credit migration consistent with
credit cycle
Pressure on financials and
cyclicals
Overall highly rated
Pressure on ALT-A delinquency
trends
Some Alt-A downgrades
Low, but rising delinquency
trends
Seasoned portfolio
BBB market pricing pressure
severe
Nominal downgrades to date,
but rating activity likely
Slowing economy and lack of financing availability
likely to lead to higher delinquencies
Active surveillance and portfolio management
Nominal new investment activity
Liquidated $45 million in problematic exposures in
Q4 2008
Managing through the credit cycle by emphasizing long-term
assessments of value and quality
Asset Allocation at 12/31/08
CNO
Asset Allocation at 12/31/08
MTM in line with market trends, reflecting
wider spreads in corporates and mortgages
CNO
($ millions)
CMOs by Agency at 12/31/08
Our CMO portfolio is almost evenly divided
between agencies and non-agencies
CNO
($ millions)
Alt-A at 12/31/08
CNO
AAA
AA
A
BB
Total
$227.1
$0.9
$3.9
$10.8
$242.7
$466.5
$4.0
$3.9
$10.8
$485.2
93.6%
0.4%
1.6%
4.4%
100.0%
1.22%
0.00%
0.02%
0.06%
1.30%
Market
Value (mil.)
Book
Value (mil.)
% of
Alt-A*
% of
Portfolio*
Rating
$14.7 million (market value) A category or lower (0.08% of invested assets)
Substantial credit support inherent in structures relative to expected losses, even at
rising delinquency rates
No exposure to affordability products option ARMs, hybrid, neg-ams
716
695
708
704
715
Avg.
FICO
9.2%
18.2%
6.8%
12.0%
9.3%
Avg.
Support
9.7%
6.5%
12.5%
16.2%
9.9%
Avg. 60+
Delinq.
*% of market value
($ millions)
Sub-Prime Home Equity ABS
By Vintage
CNO
Exposure reduced by 46% in 2008
Market value represents 0.32% of invested assets at 12/31/08, compared to 0.52% at 12/31/07
(GAAP book value - $ millions)
$150.5
$81.4
Sub-Prime Home Equity ABS
CNO
AAA
AA
A
Total
$24.1
$21.6
$12.5
$58.2
$32.3
$31.7
$17.4
$81.4
39.7%
38.9%
21.4%
100.0%
0.13%
0.12%
0.07%
0.32%
Market
Value (mil.)
Book
Value (mil.)
% of
Subprime*
% of
Portfolio*
Rating
Only $12.5 million (market value) A category or lower (0.07% of invested assets)
No exposure to affordability products negative amortization, option ARM
collateral, etc.
Rising delinquencies, consistent with market conditions
Remaining portfolio generally reflects satisfactory margin for adverse collateral
performance
639
648
665
648
Avg.
FICO
30.3%
23.4%
22.8%
26.1%
Avg.
Support
15.8%
9.5%
8.4%
11.9%
Avg. 60+
Delinq.
*% of market value
($ millions)
CMBS by Vintage at 12/31/08
Our CMBS exposure is heavily weighted toward higher ratings and
older vintages with stronger qualitative characteristics and seasoning
CNO
---
$93.3
$38.1
$15.6
$31.9
$15.6
$30.2
A
$23.2
$30.7
$21.4
---
2006
---
$23.2
$20.6
---
$122.7
$27.5
---
$61.2
$34.9
$47.0
$537.7
$450.8
2007
Total BV
Total MV
---
$76.9
$2.3
$111.7
2005
---
$9.1
$7.4
$153.7
2004
---
$6.0
$30.1
$225.3
Pre-2004
<BBB
BBB
AA
AAA
(GAAP book value - $ millions)
CMBS by Collateral Type at 12/31/08
Our CMBS are backed by a diverse pool of underlying collateral
$90 billion, from more than 7,800 commercial mortgage loans
CNO
High Yield Corporates
at 12/31/08
Our HY Corporate allocation is diversified and is weighted away from cyclicals
CNO
CNO Summary
Key differences between Conseco and the rest of the industry:
Our sales are continuing to grow and, indeed, are growing strongly
Our products are simple and straightforward, and entail less risk than
products designed for higher-net-worth customers
Our market is sufficiently different from most insurers
Capital management initiatives implemented
Strong franchise in the consumer senior middle market
Less stock market exposure than some of our highly rated competitors
have
We will be:
Continuing to work on sales growth
Continuing to make the business more efficient
Continuing to work on projects to improve our capital position going forward
Questions and Answers
Appendix
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
The following provides additional information regarding certain non-GAAP measures used in this presentation. A non-GAAP measure is a
numerical measure of a companys performance, financial
position, or cash flows that excludes or includes amounts that are normally excluded or
included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. While management believes these
measures are useful
to enhance understanding and comparability of our financial results, these non-GAAP measures should not be considered as
substitutes for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Additional information concerning non-GAAP measures is included
in our periodic
filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission that are available in the Investor SEC Filings section of Consecos website,
www.conseco.com.
Operating earnings measures
Management believes that an analysis of net income applicable to common stock before net realized gains or losses and
losses related to the
transfer of Senior Health to an independent trust (net operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure) is important to evaluate the performance
of the Company and is a key measure commonly used in the life insurance
industry. Management uses this measure to evaluate performance
because realized investment gains or losses can be affected by events that are unrelated to the Companys underlying fundamentals.
In addition, our results were affected by a significant charge related to a Q4 2007 valuation allowance for deferred tax assets. Management does
not believe that similar charges are likely to recur
within two years, and there were no similar charges recognized within the prior two years.
Management believes an analysis of operating earnings before these charges is important to evaluate the performance of the Company prior to
the effect
of these unusual and significant charges.
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
A reconciliation of net income applicable to common stock to the net operating income, excluding a Q4 2007 and Q2 2008 valuation allowance for
deferred tax assets (and related per share amounts) is as follows
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts):
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Net income (loss) applicable to common stock
(71.5)
$
(5.8)
$
(487.1)
$
(182.0)
$
(406.8)
$
Net realized investment losses, net of related amortization and taxes
23.8
27.8
17.4
84.2
88.0
Discontinued operations
6.9
(0.5)
198.3
157.4
367.5
Net operating income (loss) (a non-GAAP financial measure)
(40.8)
21.5
(271.4)
59.6
48.7
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets
68.0
-
298.0
-
-
Net operating income before a Q4 2007 valuation allowance for deferred
tax assets (a non-GAAP financial measure)
27.2
$
21.5
$
26.6
$
59.6
$
48.7
$
Per diluted share:
Net income (loss)
(0.38)
$
(0.03)
$
(2.64)
$
(0.98)
$
(2.20)
$
Net realized investment losses, net of related amortization and taxes
0.13
0.15
0.09
0.45
0.47
Discontinued operations
0.03
-
1.08
0.85
1.99
Net operating income (loss) (a non-GAAP financial measure)
(0.22)
0.12
(1.47)
0.32
0.26
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets
0.37
-
1.61
-
-
Net operating income before a Q4 2007 valuation allowance for
deferred tax assets (a non-GAAP financial measure)
0.15
$
0.12
$
0.14
$
0.32
$
0.26
$
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Book value, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, per diluted share
This non-GAAP financial measure differs from book value per diluted
share because accumulated other comprehensive income has been
excluded from the book value used to determine the measure. Management believes this non-GAAP financial measure is useful because it
removes the volatility that arises from changes
in accumulated other comprehensive income. Such volatility is often caused by changes in the
estimated fair value of our investment portfolio resulting from changes in general market interest
rates rather than the business decisions made
by management.
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
A reconciliation from book value per diluted share to book value per diluted share, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) is
as follows (dollars in millions, except per share amounts):
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Total shareholders' equity
4,235.9
$
3,939.7
$
3,382.1
$
2,704.0
$
1,664.2
$
Less accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(273.3)
(565.6)
(639.2)
(1,137.7)
(1,770.7)
Total shareholders' equity excluding
accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(a non-GAAP financial measure)
4,509.2
$
4,505.3
$
4,021.3
$
3,841.7
$
3,434.9
$
Diluted shares outstanding for the period
184,708,727
184,681,243
184,792,300
184,761,138
184,755,680
Book value per diluted share
22.93
$
21.33
$
18.30
$
14.64
$
9.01
$
Less accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(1.48)
(3.07)
(3.46)
(6.15)
(9.58)
Book value, excluding accumulated other
comprehensive income (loss), per diluted share
(a non-GAAP financial measure)
24.41
$
24.40
$
21.76
$
20.79
$
18.59
$
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Operating return measures
Management believes that an analysis of return before net realized gains or losses and losses related to the transfer of Senior Health to an
independent trust (net operating income,
a non-GAAP financial measure) is important to evaluate the performance of the Company and is a key
measure commonly used in the life insurance industry. Management uses this measure to evaluate performance because realized investment
gains
or losses can be affected by events that are unrelated to the Companys underlying fundamentals.
In addition, our returns were affected by a significant charge related to a Q4 2007 and Q2 2008 valuation allowance for deferred tax assets.
Management does not believe that similar charges are
likely to recur within two years, and there were no similar charges recognized within the
prior two years. Management believes an analysis of return before these charges and subsequent refinements is important to evaluate the
performance
of the Company prior to the effect of these unusual and significant charges.
This non-GAAP financial measure also differs from return on equity because accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) has been excluded
from the value of equity used to determine this ratio. Management
believes this non-GAAP financial measure is useful because it removes the
volatility that arises from changes in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss). Such volatility is often caused by changes in the
estimated fair value of our
investment portfolio resulting from changes in general market interest rates rather than the business decisions made
by management.
In addition, our equity includes the value of significant net operating loss carryforwards (included in income tax assets). In accordance with
GAAP, these assets are not discounted, and
accordingly will not provide a return to shareholders (until after it is realized as a reduction to taxes
that would otherwise be paid). Management believes that excluding this value from
the equity component of this measure enhances the
understanding of the effect these non-discounted assets have on operating returns and the comparability of these measures from period-to-
period. Operating return measures are used in measuring
the performance of our business units and are used as a basis for incentive
compensation.
All references to segment operating return measures assume a 25% debt to total capital ratio at the segment level. Additionally, corporate
expenses have been allocated to the segments.
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
A reconciliation of return on common equity to operating return less a Q4 2007 and Q2 2008 valuation allowance for deferred tax assets on
common equity (excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
and net operating loss carryforwards) is as follows (dollars in millions,
except per share amounts):
(continued on next page)
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Net income (loss) applicable to common stock
(71.5)
$
(5.8)
$
(487.1)
$
(182.0)
$
(406.8)
$
Net realized investment (gains) losses, net of related amortization and taxes
23.8
27.8
17.4
84.2
88.0
Discontinued operations
6.9
(0.5)
198.3
157.4
367.5
Net operating income (loss) (a non-GAAP financial measure)
(40.8)
21.5
(271.4)
59.6
48.7
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets
68.0
-
298.0
-
-
Net operating income before a Q4 2007 valuation allowance for
deferred tax assets (a non-GAAP financial measure)
27.2
$
21.5
$
26.6
$
59.6
$
48.7
$
Common shareholders' equity
4,235.9
$
3,939.7
$
3,382.1
$
2,704.0
$
1,664.2
$
Less accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(273.3)
(565.6)
(639.2)
(1,137.7)
(1,770.7)
Common shareholder's equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive
income (loss) (a non-GAAP financial measure)
4,509.2
4,505.3
4,021.3
3,841.7
3,434.9
Less net operating loss carryforwards
1,426.7
1,435.1
1,137.2
1,121.7
1,048.4
Common shareholders' equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income
(loss) and net operating loss carryforwards (a non-GAAP financial measure)
3,082.5
$
3,070.2
$
2,884.1
$
2,720.0
$
2,386.5
$
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
(continued from previous page)
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Average common shareholders' equity
$4,260.7
$4,087.8
$3,660.9
$3,043.1
$2,184.1
Average common shareholders' equity, excluding accumulated other
comprehensive income (loss) and net operating loss carryforwards (a
non-GAAP financial measure)
$3,148.7
$3,076.4
$2,977.2
$2,802.1
$2,553.3
Return on equity ratios:
Return on common equity
-6.7%
-0.6%
-53.2%
-23.9%
-74.5%
Operating return less the valuation allowance for deferred
tax assets on common equity, excluding accumulated
other comprehensive income (loss) and net operating loss carry-
forwards (a non-GAAP financial measure)
3.5%
2.8%
3.6%
8.5%
7.6%
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
A reconciliation of pretax operating earnings (a non-GAAP financial measure) to segment operating income (loss) and consolidated net income
(loss) for the nine months ended December 31, 2008, is as follows
(dollars in millions):
(Continued on next page)
Corporate and
Discontinued
CIG
Bankers
Colonial Penn
Operations
Total
Pretax operating earnings (a non-GAAP financial measure)
121.3
$
171.5
$
25.2
$
(64.7)
$
253.3
$
Allocation of interest expense, excess capital and corporate
expenses
(37.3)
(27.3)
(2.3)
66.9
-
Income tax (expense) benefit
(32.1)
(55.1)
(8.8)
(0.9)
(96.9)
Segment operating income (loss)
51.9
$
89.1
$
14.1
$
1.3
$
156.4
Net realized investment losses, net of related amortization and taxes
(217.4)
Discontinued operations
(722.7)
Valuation allowance for deferred tax assets
(298.0)
Net income
(1,081.7)
$
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
A reconciliation of common shareholders equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) and net operating loss
carryforwards (a non-GAAP financial measure) to common shareholders
equity is as follows (dollars in millions):
(Continued from previous page)
(Continued on next page)
Corporate and
Discontinued
CIG
Bankers
Colonial Penn
Operations
Total
December 31, 2007
Common shareholders' equity, excluding accumulated other
comprehensive income (loss) and net operating loss carryforwards
(a non-GAAP financial measure)
1,192.4
$
1,299.8
$
109.7
$
480.6
$
3,082.5
$
Net operating loss carryforwards
1,426.7
-
-
-
1,426.7
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(106.7)
(106.7)
(4.1)
(55.8)
(273.3)
Allocation of capital
464.7
433.3
36.5
(934.5)
-
Common shareholders' equity
2,977.1
$
1,626.4
$
142.1
$
(509.7)
$
4,235.9
$
December 31, 2008
Common shareholders' equity, excluding accumulated other
comprehensive income (loss) and net operating loss carryforwards
(a non-GAAP financial measure)
1,582.4
$
1,232.1
$
111.9
$
(539.9)
$
2,386.5
$
Net operating loss carryforwards
1,048.4
-
-
-
1,048.4
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(824.7)
(817.9)
(41.4)
(86.7)
(1,770.7)
Allocation of capital
526.9
410.7
37.3
(974.9)
-
Common shareholders' equity
2,333.0
$
824.9
$
107.8
$
(1,601.5)
$
1,664.2
$
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
(Continued from previous page)
A reconciliation of average common shareholders equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) and net operating loss
carryforwards (a non-GAAP financial measure) to average common shareholders
equity at December 31, 2008, is as follows (dollars in millions):
Corporate and
Discontinued
CIG
Bankers
Colonial Penn
Operations
Total
Average common shareholders' equity, excluding accumulated
other comprehensive income (loss) and net operating loss
carryforwards (a non-GAAP financial measure)
1,416.3
$
1,247.3
$
113.3
$
75.3
$
2,852.2
$
Average net operating loss carryforwards
1,232.9
Average accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(841.1)
Average common shareholders' equity
3,244.0
$
Return on equity ratios:
Return on equity
-33.3%
Operating return (less the Q4 2007 and Q2 2008 valuation
allowance for deferred tax assets) on common equity,
excluding accumulated other comprehensive income
(loss) and net operating loss carryforwards (a
non-GAAP financial measure)
3.7%
7.1%
12.4%
NM
5.5%
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Debt to capital ratio, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
This non-GAAP financial measure differs from the debt to capital ratio because accumulated other comprehensive income has been excluded
from the value of capital used to determine this measure. Management
believes this non-GAAP financial measure is useful because it removes
the volatility that arises from changes in accumulated other comprehensive income. Such volatility is often caused by changes in the estimated
fair value of our investment
portfolio resulting from changes in general market interest rates rather than the business decisions made by
management.
Information Related to Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures
A reconciliation of the debt to capital ratio to debt to capital, excluding accumulated other comprehensive loss is as follows (dollars in millions):
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Corporate notes payable
1,193.7
$